UFC matchup prediction
Timmy Cuamba vs Benardo Sopaj prediction, odds and fight preview
FightAlpha's value read is Timmy Cuamba at the tested odds snapshot. The read is about price versus matchup profile, not certainty.
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Quick summary
Timmy Cuamba vs Benardo Sopaj pick, odds and event context
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs Costa • Meta APEX, Las Vegas, United States
Value at the tested price; not a guaranteed winner.
Market snapshot used for this page.
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Fighter comparison
Timmy Cuamba vs Benardo Sopaj: key matchup signals
Green cells mark the stronger side for each measurable stat. Lower is better for strikes absorbed and age; higher is better for output, wrestling volume, defense, and reach.
| Signal | Timmy Cuamba | Benardo Sopaj |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 10-3-0 | 12-3-0 |
| Recent form | W-W-L-L | W-L |
| Style | Mixed Martial Arts / Orthodox | Mixed Martial Arts / Orthodox |
| Strikes landed/min | 2.77 | 4.24 |
| Strikes absorbed/min | 3.58 | 4.88 |
| Takedown avg | 1.31 | 2.53 |
| Takedown defense | 72% | 76% |
| Age | 27 | 25 |
| Height | 5'9" / 175.3 cm | 5'6" / 167.6 cm |
| Reach | 71" / 180.3 cm | 66" / 167.6 cm |
| Weight | 135 lb / 61.2 kg | 135 lb / 61.2 kg |
Deeper matchup context
Recent form, damage, activity and schedule notes
A few extra signals to help you read the matchup beyond the headline stats: who has been active, who has been taking damage, and whether recent results came against a tougher or softer slate.
Cuamba is 2-2 over the recent sample and enters on a two-fight winning streak. Sopaj is 1-1 and also coming off a win, but his UFC-level sample is thinner, so Cuamba's recent form gives slightly more usable context.
Cuamba is 196 days removed from his last fight. Sopaj has been out 483 days, about 1.3 years. Sopaj's longer layoff can mean recovery time, but it also adds timing and sharpness risk.
Sopaj has absorbed fewer recent significant strikes, 67 vs 165 for Cuamba. Cuamba does have the slightly cleaner head strikes absorbed number, 33 vs 39. So the absorption read is split: Sopaj has taken less total recent volume, but Cuamba has limited head contact a little better.
Sopaj has more listed offensive output, 4.24 significant strikes landed per minute vs 2.77, and more takedown volume, 2.53 per fight vs 1.31. Cuamba's case leans more on defensive structure, reach, and whether Sopaj's pace holds after the layoff.
Cuamba appears to have faced the tougher recent schedule, which helps explain the 2-2 record and makes the current winning streak more meaningful. Sopaj's numbers are dangerous, but the context is less tested.
Value read
Why FightAlpha leans Timmy Cuamba
FightAlpha looks for prices that appear better than the matchup profile suggests. Value read does not mean most likely winner. It means the tested price looks better than the matchup profile suggests.
FightAlpha leans Timmy Cuamba at 2.25. Sopaj has clear pressure tools and the cleaner recent significant strikes absorbed total, but Cuamba's schedule context, activity edge, reach, and head-strike absorption profile make the underdog price playable rather than automatic favorite acceptance.
This is a price-sensitive lean. If Sopaj's pace survives the layoff, he can make the read uncomfortable, but the market leaves enough room to side with Cuamba's broader context.
FAQ
Timmy Cuamba vs Benardo Sopaj prediction FAQ
Quick answers before using any matchup read responsibly.
Who is FightAlpha picking for Timmy Cuamba vs Benardo Sopaj?
FightAlpha's public value read is Timmy Cuamba at the tested odds snapshot. This is not a guarantee or betting instruction.
What odds were used for Timmy Cuamba vs Benardo Sopaj?
The tested odds snapshot is Timmy Cuamba 2.25 / +125 and Benardo Sopaj 1.65 / -154. Lines move, so always compare with your own available price.
Why are FightAlpha matchup explanations data-first?
The model reads are built from data inputs, so the explanations stay grounded in measurable fight signals too. FightAlpha does not base picks on rumors, hype, sentiment, or personal feelings.
Are FightAlpha UFC predictions guaranteed?
No. MMA outcomes are uncertain and betting carries risk. Public reads can lose, and FightAlpha does not guarantee profit.