UFC predictions, odds and model picks

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UFC Fight Night: Allen vs Costa predictions, odds and full card picks

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Date: 2026-05-16
Your local start: Detecting local time…
Location: Meta APEX, Las Vegas, United States
Status: Upcoming
Tracked fights: 12
Fight Alpha Bets Outcome: Pending · ROI available after grading

View odds and picks Full card breakdown Official UFC event

18+ onlyAdults in legal betting jurisdictions only.

Follow local laws and never bet where gambling is restricted or illegal.

No guaranteesPredictions are uncertain.

FightAlpha reads and unit suggestions are informational only. Profit is never guaranteed.

Method noteValue beats forced action.

A PASS or no-edge label is part of the system when the odds or data do not justify a bet.

Event hub

UFC Fight Night: Allen vs Costa predictions and model picks

This event hub tracks FightAlpha model picks, tested odds, pass/no-edge calls, and full-card betting notes for every published matchup.

Full card picks: 12 tracked fights
Odds used: fixed tested odds where available
Model output: pick, pass/no-edge, allocation, and result after grading

UFC odds and model picks

UFC Fight Night: Allen vs Costa odds, predictions and full card picks

This event hub summarizes the full fight card with tested odds context, FightAlpha value/pass signals, and matchup links before the detailed breakdowns.

#	Matchup	Odds context	FightAlpha read	Preview
1	Arnold Allen vs Melquizael Costa	Arnold Allen 1.54 / Melquizael Costa 2.5	Melquizael Costa
2	Dooho Choi vs Daniel Santos	Dooho Choi 2.15 / Daniel Santos 1.7	Daniel Santos
3	Modestas Bukauskas vs Rodolfo Bellato	Modestas Bukauskas 1.76 / Rodolfo Bellato 2.1	PASS / no edge
4	Timmy Cuamba vs Benardo Sopaj	Timmy Cuamba 2.25 / Benardo Sopaj 1.65	Timmy Cuamba
5	Tuco Tokkos vs Ivan Erslan	Tuco Tokkos 2.65 / Ivan Erslan 1.49	Tuco Tokkos
6	Ketlen Vieira vs Jacqueline Cavalcanti	Ketlen Vieira 2.35 / Jacqueline Cavalcanti 1.6	Jacqueline Cavalcanti
7	Cody Brundage vs Andre Petroski	Cody Brundage 2.65 / Andre Petroski 1.48	Andre Petroski
8	Alice Ardelean vs Polyana Viana	Alice Ardelean 1.55 / Polyana Viana 2.5	Alice Ardelean	Preview
9	Daniel Barez vs Luis Gurule	Daniel Barez 1.9 / Luis Gurule 1.91	Daniel Barez	Preview
10	Shauna Bannon vs Nicolle Caliari	Shauna Bannon 2.7 / Nicolle Caliari 1.48	Shauna Bannon	Preview
11	Malcolm Wellmaker vs Juan Diaz	0.00	PASS / no edge
12	Trey Ogden vs Tommy Gantt	0.00	PASS / no edge

Model picks methodology

How FightAlpha builds UFC model picks for this card

The goal is not to predict every winner. The goal is to separate playable prices from passes before the card starts.

Matchup first

Each fight is reviewed through fighter history, style signals, recent performance, and red/blue corner context.

Odds decide value

A fighter can be likely to win and still be a bad bet if the available price is too short.

Passes are part of the system

Insufficient data, new fighters, cancelled bouts, or prices without enough edge are labelled as PASS/no edge instead of forced action.

Ledger over hype

FightAlpha is meant to be judged across cards through wins, losses, passes, odds, and staking discipline.

Full card picks

UFC Fight Night Allen vs Costa fight-by-fight UFC predictions and betting preview

Review every matchup with fighter context, tested odds, public value/pass signals, model-pick discipline, and key stats in one place.

Fight 1 Value pick

Arnold Allen 20-4-0

Arnold Allen vs Melquizael Costa

Mixed Martial Arts · Southpaw vs Mixed Martial Arts · Southpaw

Melquizael Costa 26-7-0

Model pick: Melquizael Costa
Tested odds: 2.50
Full-card allocation: Register for FREERegistered allocation
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3.47 Strikes landed 4.38

3.04 Strikes taken 2.97

0.86 Takedowns 2

71% Takedown defense 58%

0 Finish rate 0

Fight 2 Value pick

Dooho Choi 16-4-1

Dooho Choi vs Daniel Santos

Boxing · Orthodox vs Muay Thai · Orthodox

Daniel Santos 14-2-0

Model pick: Daniel Santos
Tested odds: 1.70
Full-card allocation: Register for FREERegistered allocation
Custom odds calculator: Premium SubscriptionCalculate

4.67 Strikes landed 4.76

4.02 Strikes taken 5.03

1.43 Takedowns 3.01

47% Takedown defense 73%

0 Finish rate 0

Fight 3 No edge / pass

Modestas Bukauskas 19-7-0

Modestas Bukauskas vs Rodolfo Bellato

Kickboxing · Switch vs Mixed Martial Arts · Orthodox

Rodolfo Bellato 13-3-1

Model pick: Pass - no edge at tested odds
Tested odds: Modestas Bukauskas 1.76 / Rodolfo Bellato 2.1
Full-card allocation: Register for FREERegistered allocation
Custom odds calculator: Premium SubscriptionCalculate

3.24 Strikes landed 5.37

4.05 Strikes taken 5.86

0.26 Takedowns 1.38

79% Takedown defense 94%

0 Finish rate 0

Fight 4 Value pick

Timmy Cuamba 10-3-0

Timmy Cuamba vs Benardo Sopaj

Mixed Martial Arts · Orthodox vs Mixed Martial Arts · Orthodox

Benardo Sopaj 12-3-0

Model pick: Timmy Cuamba
Tested odds: 2.25
Full-card allocation: Register for FREERegistered allocation
Custom odds calculator: Premium SubscriptionCalculate

2.77 Strikes landed 4.24

3.58 Strikes taken 4.88

1.31 Takedowns 2.53

72% Takedown defense 76%

0 Finish rate 0

Fight 5 Value pick

Tuco Tokkos 11-5-0

Tuco Tokkos vs Ivan Erslan

Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu · Orthodox vs Boxing · Orthodox

Ivan Erslan 14-6-0

Model pick: Tuco Tokkos
Tested odds: 2.65
Full-card allocation: Register for FREERegistered allocation
Custom odds calculator: Premium SubscriptionCalculate

2.12 Strikes landed 2.55

4.27 Strikes taken 5.01

4.21 Takedowns 0.45

33% Takedown defense 61%

0 Finish rate 0

Fight 6 Value pick

Ketlen Vieira 15-5-0

Ketlen Vieira vs Jacqueline Cavalcanti

Judo · Orthodox vs Kickboxing · Orthodox

Jacqueline Cavalcanti 10-1-0

Model pick: Jacqueline Cavalcanti
Tested odds: 1.60
Full-card allocation: Register for FREERegistered allocation
Custom odds calculator: Premium SubscriptionCalculate

2.76 Strikes landed 5.65

3.75 Strikes taken 3.17

1.33 Takedowns 0

90% Takedown defense 88%

0 Finish rate 0

Fight 7 Value pick

Cody Brundage 11-9-1

Cody Brundage vs Andre Petroski

Wrestling · Orthodox vs Mixed Martial Arts · Switch

Andre Petroski 13-6-0

Model pick: Andre Petroski
Tested odds: 1.48
Full-card allocation: Register for FREERegistered allocation
Custom odds calculator: Premium SubscriptionCalculate

2.26 Strikes landed 2.81

3.02 Strikes taken 2.79

1.88 Takedowns 3.15

68% Takedown defense 86%

0 Finish rate 0

Fight 8 Value pick

Alice Ardelean 11-7-0

Alice Ardelean vs Polyana Viana

Kickboxing · Orthodox vs Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu · Orthodox

Matchup breakdown

Polyana Viana 13-8-0

Model pick: Alice Ardelean
Tested odds: 1.55
Full-card allocation: Register for FREERegistered allocation
Custom odds calculator: Premium SubscriptionCalculate

7.35 Strikes landed 2.74

5.2 Strikes taken 2.5

1 Takedowns 0.75

85% Takedown defense 35%

0 Finish rate 0

Fight 9 Value pick

Daniel Barez 17-7-0

Daniel Barez vs Luis Gurule

Mixed Martial Arts · Orthodox vs Wrestling · Orthodox

Matchup breakdown

Luis Gurule 10-3-0

Model pick: Daniel Barez
Tested odds: 1.90
Full-card allocation: Register for FREERegistered allocation
Custom odds calculator: Premium SubscriptionCalculate

3.65 Strikes landed 4.47

5.95 Strikes taken 4.74

1.93 Takedowns 0.58

80% Takedown defense 58%

0 Finish rate 0

Fight 10 Value pick

Shauna Bannon 7-2-0

Shauna Bannon vs Nicolle Caliari

Mixed Martial Arts · Switch vs Mixed Martial Arts · Orthodox

Matchup breakdown

Nicolle Caliari 8-4-0

Model pick: Shauna Bannon
Tested odds: 2.70
Full-card allocation: Register for FREERegistered allocation
Custom odds calculator: Premium SubscriptionCalculate

4.32 Strikes landed 3.46

3.75 Strikes taken 7.01

0 Takedowns 2.88

40% Takedown defense 0%

0 Finish rate 0

Fight 11 No edge / insufficient data

Malcolm Wellmaker 10-1-0

Malcolm Wellmaker vs Juan Diaz

Boxing · Switch vs Profile data pending

Juan Diaz Record TBA

Model pick: Pass - no edge at tested odds
Tested odds: 0.00
Full-card allocation: Register for FREERegistered allocation
Custom odds calculator: Premium SubscriptionCalculate

5.8 Strikes landed N/A

5.39 Strikes taken N/A

0 Takedowns N/A

57% Takedown defense N/A

0 Finish rate N/A

Fight 12 No edge / insufficient data

Trey Ogden 18-7-0

Trey Ogden vs Tommy Gantt

Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu · Orthodox vs Profile data pending

Tommy Gantt Record TBA

Model pick: Pass - no edge at tested odds
Tested odds: 0.00
Full-card allocation: Register for FREERegistered allocation
Custom odds calculator: Premium SubscriptionCalculate

3.2 Strikes landed N/A

3.49 Strikes taken N/A

1.89 Takedowns N/A

100% Takedown defense N/A

0 Finish rate N/A

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Event FAQ

UFC Fight Night: Allen vs Costa predictions FAQ

Use this page as a structured preview, not a guarantee. MMA betting is risky and passes are expected.

What are the UFC Fight Night: Allen vs Costa predictions?

FightAlpha publishes a full-card event hub with model picks, pass/no-edge calls, tested odds context, and fight-by-fight betting notes for the tracked matchups.

Where can I see UFC Fight Night: Allen vs Costa odds?

The odds table summarizes the tested odds context used for each matchup where available, followed by deeper fight-card sections.

Does FightAlpha publish full card UFC picks?

Yes. Each event page covers the tracked card, including public picks or passes and registered allocation context where available.

Are these UFC model picks or manual picks?

FightAlpha uses model-driven probability, odds, matchup context, and pass/no-edge discipline. The page is informational and not a guarantee.

Why is a fight marked PASS or no edge?

A pass means the tested odds, matchup uncertainty, or available data do not justify a published bet.

How should I use this responsibly?

Only use FightAlpha if you are an adult in a legal betting jurisdiction. Never chase losses, never risk money you cannot afford to lose, and treat every pick as uncertain.