UFC matchup prediction
Thiago Moises vs Gauge Young prediction, odds and fight preview
FightAlpha's value read is Gauge Young at the tested odds snapshot. The read is about price versus matchup profile, not certainty.
Follow local laws and never bet where gambling is restricted or illegal.
The aim is disciplined price-vs-probability thinking, not certainty.
Tested odds are a snapshot, not a live sportsbook feed.
Quick summary
Thiago Moises vs Gauge Young pick, odds and event context
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs Malott • Canada Life Centre, Winnipeg, Canada
Value at the tested price; not a guaranteed winner.
Market snapshot used for this page.
Compare against your available line.
Fighter comparison
Thiago Moises vs Gauge Young: key matchup signals
Green cells mark the stronger side for each measurable stat. Lower is better for strikes absorbed and age; higher is better for output, wrestling volume, defense, and reach.
| Signal | Thiago Moises | Gauge Young |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 19-10 | 11-3 |
| Recent form | L-L-W-L-W | W-W-L |
| Style | Mixed Martial Arts | Mixed Martial Arts / MMA |
| Strikes landed/min | 2.52 | 6.32 |
| Strikes absorbed/min | 4.4 | 5.12 |
| Takedown avg | 1.37 | 0.75 |
| Takedown defense | 52% | 76% |
| Age | N/A | N/A |
| Height | 5'9" / 175.3 cm | 5'9" / 175.3 cm |
| Reach | 70" / 177.8 cm | 70" / 177.8 cm |
| Weight | 155 lb / 70.3 kg | 155 lb / 70.3 kg |
Deeper matchup context
Recent form, damage, activity and schedule notes
A few extra signals to help you read the matchup beyond the headline stats: who has been active, who has been taking damage, and whether recent results came against a tougher or softer slate.
Recent results: Thiago Moises is 2-3 over the recent sample; Gauge Young is 2-1 over the recent sample. Thiago Moises comes in on a 2-fight losing streak. Gauge Young comes in on a 2-fight winning streak.
Time since last fight: Thiago Moises 9 days; Gauge Young 9 days. A quick turnaround can mean sharpness or accumulated wear, while a longer break can mean rest or rust.
Thiago Moises has the cleaner recent significant strikes absorbed profile (122 vs 181 for Gauge Young). Thiago Moises has the cleaner head strikes absorbed profile (18.8 vs 44.5 for Gauge Young).
Thiago Moises projects as the fighter more likely to push grappling pressure, which can change how much of the fight plays out at range.
Thiago Moises appears to have faced the tougher recent schedule, while Gauge Young's results may need a little more context. A tougher schedule can make recent losses look less alarming; a softer one can make streaks look cleaner than they really are.
Value read
Why FightAlpha leans Gauge Young
FightAlpha looks for prices that appear better than the matchup profile suggests. Value read does not mean most likely winner. It means the tested price looks better than the matchup profile suggests.
FightAlpha leans Gauge Young because the matchup shows the better takedown-defense number (76% versus 52%), and the higher listed striking output (6.32 significant strikes per minute versus 2.52). It is a practical pricing read, not a claim that every major matchup signal points one way.
This is still thin enough to respect the other side. Thiago Moises's higher takedown volume and Thiago Moises's cleaner listed significant-strike absorption keep Thiago Moises live, which is why this stays a value read rather than a comfort pick.
FAQ
Thiago Moises vs Gauge Young prediction FAQ
Quick answers before using any matchup read responsibly.
Who is FightAlpha picking for Thiago Moises vs Gauge Young?
FightAlpha's public value read is Gauge Young at the tested odds snapshot. This is not a guarantee or betting instruction.
What odds were used for Thiago Moises vs Gauge Young?
The tested odds snapshot is Thiago Moises N/A / N/A and Gauge Young N/A / N/A. Lines move, so always compare with your own available price.
Why are FightAlpha matchup explanations data-first?
The model reads are built from data inputs, so the explanations stay grounded in measurable fight signals too. FightAlpha does not base picks on rumors, hype, sentiment, or personal feelings.
Are FightAlpha UFC predictions guaranteed?
No. MMA outcomes are uncertain and betting carries risk. Public reads can lose, and FightAlpha does not guarantee profit.