UFC matchup prediction
Sergei Pavlovich vs Tallison Teixeira prediction, odds and fight preview
FightAlpha's value read is Tallison Teixeira at the tested odds snapshot. The read is about price versus matchup profile, not certainty.
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Quick summary
Sergei Pavlovich vs Tallison Teixeira pick, odds and event context
UFC Fight Night: Song vs Figueiredo • Galaxy Arena, Macao
Value at the tested price; not a guaranteed winner.
Market snapshot used for this page.
Compare against your available line.
Fighter comparison
Sergei Pavlovich vs Tallison Teixeira: key matchup signals
Green cells mark the stronger side for each measurable stat. Lower is better for strikes absorbed and age; higher is better for output, wrestling volume, defense, and reach.
| Signal | Sergei Pavlovich | Tallison Teixeira |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 20-3-0 | 9-1-0 |
| Recent form | W-W-W-L-L | L-W-L-W |
| Style | Mixed Martial Arts / Southpaw | Mixed Martial Arts / Orthodox |
| Strikes landed/min | 4.43 | 5.02 |
| Strikes absorbed/min | 3.62 | 3.86 |
| Takedown avg | 0.48 | 2.48 |
| Takedown defense | 75% | 0% |
| Age | 34 | 26 |
| Height | 6'3" / 190.5 cm | 6'7" / 200.7 cm |
| Reach | 84" / 213.4 cm | 83" / 210.8 cm |
| Weight | 257 lb / 116.6 kg | 258 lb / 117 kg |
Deeper matchup context
Recent form, damage, activity and schedule notes
A few extra signals to help you read the matchup beyond the headline stats: who has been active, who has been taking damage, and whether recent results came against a tougher or softer slate.
Pavlovich is the established heavyweight name, while Teixeira is the less proven but physically dangerous side. The matchup is less about résumé comparison and more about whether the market is overpricing certainty in a heavyweight fight.
Teixeira has the sharper activity clock at 106 days, while Pavlovich is 267 days removed. At heavyweight, timing and first exchanges matter, so the shorter turnaround is useful context for the underdog.
Teixeira has absorbed far fewer recent significant strikes, 9 vs 110 for Pavlovich, and fewer head strikes absorbed, 4 vs 8.6. The sample context matters, but the visible absorption trend is cleaner on the dog.
Teixeira has the taller frame, higher listed striking output at 5.02 significant strikes landed per minute, and much more takedown volume at 2.48 per fight. Pavlovich still owns elite heavyweight finishing danger, so this is volatile by design.
Pavlovich has faced the tougher recent schedule, which is the main caution on Teixeira. The question is whether that experience gap justifies a price this wide.
Value read
Why FightAlpha leans Tallison Teixeira
FightAlpha looks for prices that appear better than the matchup profile suggests. That can mean backing a fighter near even money, taking an underdog, or passing when the number is wrong.
FightAlpha leans Tallison Teixeira at 4.70 because heavyweight variance, activity, size, cleaner recent significant strikes absorbed, and a grappling-pressure wrinkle make the underdog number playable.
Pavlovich can absolutely make this look wrong fast. The read is not that Teixeira is the better proven fighter; it is that the price is wide enough for his live paths.
FAQ
Sergei Pavlovich vs Tallison Teixeira prediction FAQ
Quick answers before using any matchup read responsibly.
Who is FightAlpha picking for Sergei Pavlovich vs Tallison Teixeira?
FightAlpha's public value read is Tallison Teixeira at the tested odds snapshot. This is not a guarantee or betting instruction.
What odds were used for Sergei Pavlovich vs Tallison Teixeira?
The tested odds snapshot is Sergei Pavlovich 1.16 / -625 and Tallison Teixeira 5.55 / +455. Lines move, so always compare with your own available price.
Why are FightAlpha matchup explanations data-first?
The model reads are built from data inputs, so the explanations stay grounded in measurable fight signals too. FightAlpha does not base picks on rumors, hype, sentiment, or personal feelings.
Are FightAlpha UFC predictions guaranteed?
No. MMA outcomes are uncertain and betting carries risk. Public reads can lose, and FightAlpha does not guarantee profit.