UFC matchup prediction
Modestas Bukauskas vs Rodolfo Bellato prediction, odds and fight preview
FightAlpha's pass read is PASS · No edge at the tested odds snapshot. No edge means the tested price does not create enough value for a public bet.
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Quick summary
Modestas Bukauskas vs Rodolfo Bellato pick, odds and event context
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs Costa • Meta APEX, Las Vegas, United States
No edge means the tested price does not create enough value for a public bet.
Market snapshot used for this page.
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Fighter comparison
Modestas Bukauskas vs Rodolfo Bellato: key matchup signals
Green cells mark the stronger side for each measurable stat. Lower is better for strikes absorbed and age; higher is better for output, wrestling volume, defense, and reach.
| Signal | Modestas Bukauskas | Rodolfo Bellato |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 19-7-0 | 13-3-1 |
| Recent form | L-W-W-W-W | W-L-D-D-W |
| Style | Kickboxing / Switch | Mixed Martial Arts / Orthodox |
| Strikes landed/min | 3.24 | 5.37 |
| Strikes absorbed/min | 4.05 | 5.86 |
| Takedown avg | 0.26 | 1.38 |
| Takedown defense | 79% | 94% |
| Age | 32 | 30 |
| Height | 6'3" / 190.5 cm | 6'3" / 190.5 cm |
| Reach | 76" / 193 cm | 75" / 190.5 cm |
| Weight | 205 lb / 93 kg | 205 lb / 93 kg |
Deeper matchup context
Recent form, damage, activity and schedule notes
A few extra signals to help you read the matchup beyond the headline stats: who has been active, who has been taking damage, and whether recent results came against a tougher or softer slate.
Bukauskas is 4-1 over the recent sample, though he enters off a loss. Bellato is 2-1-2D and comes in off a win. Bukauskas has the cleaner results record, but Bellato's volatility makes the matchup harder to price cleanly.
Both are active. Bukauskas is 112 days removed from his last fight; Bellato is at 70 days. That keeps rust low on both sides and makes the matchup more about style and efficiency than inactivity.
Bukauskas has the much cleaner recent significant strikes absorbed profile, 73 vs 204 for Bellato. He also has fewer head strikes absorbed, 14.91 vs 50.5. If this fight stays messy at range, that gap is a real concern for Bellato.
Bellato brings the bigger offensive pace, 5.37 significant strikes landed per minute vs 3.24, and more takedown volume, 1.38 per fight vs 0.26. Bukauskas is the cleaner defensive profile; Bellato is the higher-chaos pressure side.
Their recent schedule strength looks broadly similar, so the form comparison is fairly direct. That makes Bukauskas' cleaner absorption profile useful, but not enough by itself to force a strong side.
Pass read
Why FightAlpha passes
FightAlpha can still show useful context, but it will not force a pick when the available data is too thin or the price does not create a clear edge.
FightAlpha passes. Bukauskas has the cleaner recent significant strikes absorbed and head strikes absorbed profile, while Bellato has more pace and pressure. At 1.76 vs 2.10, the number does not create a clean enough value edge either way.
The matchup has arguments on both sides, but they pull in different directions. When the price does not clearly compensate for that tension, the disciplined answer is no bet.
FAQ
Modestas Bukauskas vs Rodolfo Bellato prediction FAQ
Quick answers before using any matchup read responsibly.
Who is FightAlpha picking for Modestas Bukauskas vs Rodolfo Bellato?
No edge means the tested price does not create enough value for a public bet.
What odds were used for Modestas Bukauskas vs Rodolfo Bellato?
The tested odds snapshot is Modestas Bukauskas 1.76 / -132 and Rodolfo Bellato 2.10 / +110. Lines move, so always compare with your own available price.
Why are FightAlpha matchup explanations data-first?
The model reads are built from data inputs, so the explanations stay grounded in measurable fight signals too. FightAlpha does not base picks on rumors, hype, sentiment, or personal feelings.
Are FightAlpha UFC predictions guaranteed?
No. MMA outcomes are uncertain and betting carries risk. Public reads can lose, and FightAlpha does not guarantee profit.