UFC matchup prediction
Modestas Bukauskas vs Rodolfo Bellato prediction, odds and fight preview
FightAlpha's value read is PASS at the tested odds snapshot. The read is about price versus matchup profile, not certainty.
Follow local laws and never bet where gambling is restricted or illegal.
The aim is disciplined price-vs-probability thinking, not certainty.
Tested odds are a snapshot, not a live sportsbook feed.
Quick summary
Modestas Bukauskas vs Rodolfo Bellato pick, odds and event context
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs Costa • Meta APEX, Las Vegas, United States
Model-side value at the tested price; not a guaranteed winner.
Market snapshot used for this page.
Compare against your available line.
Fighter comparison
Modestas Bukauskas vs Rodolfo Bellato: key matchup signals
Green cells mark the stronger side for each measurable stat. Lower is better for strikes absorbed and age; higher is better for output, wrestling volume, defense, and reach.
| Signal | Modestas Bukauskas | Rodolfo Bellato |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 19-7-0 | 13-3-1 |
| Style | Kickboxing / Switch | Mixed Martial Arts / Orthodox |
| Strikes landed/min | 3.24 | 5.37 |
| Strikes absorbed/min | 4.05 | 5.86 |
| Takedown avg | 0.26 | 1.38 |
| Takedown defense | 79% | 94% |
| Age | 32 | 30 |
| Height | 6'3" / 190.5 cm | 6'3" / 190.5 cm |
| Reach | 76" / 193 cm | 75" / 190.5 cm |
| Weight | 205 lb / 93 kg | 205 lb / 93 kg |
Deeper matchup context
Recent form, damage, activity and schedule notes
A few extra signals to help you read the matchup beyond the headline stats: who has been active, who has been taking damage, and whether recent results came against a tougher or softer slate.
Recent results: Modestas Bukauskas is 4-1 over the recent sample; Rodolfo Bellato is 2-1-2D over the recent sample. Modestas Bukauskas comes in on a 1-fight losing streak. Rodolfo Bellato comes in on a 1-fight winning streak.
Time since last fight: Modestas Bukauskas 112 days; Rodolfo Bellato 70 days. A quick turnaround can mean sharpness or accumulated wear, while a longer break can mean rest or rust.
Modestas Bukauskas has the cleaner recent damage absorbed profile (73 vs 204 for Rodolfo Bellato). Modestas Bukauskas has the cleaner head-strike absorption profile (14.91 vs 50.5 for Rodolfo Bellato).
Rodolfo Bellato projects as the fighter more likely to push grappling pressure, which can change how much of the fight plays out at range.
Their recent schedule strength looks broadly similar, so the form comparison is fairly direct. A tougher schedule can make recent losses look less alarming; a softer one can make streaks look cleaner than they really are.
Value read
Why FightAlpha passes
FightAlpha can still show useful context, but it will not force a pick when the available data is too thin or the price does not create a clear edge.
FightAlpha is passing because the tested price does not create a clean enough value edge from the available matchup profile.
That does not mean either fighter cannot win; it means the number and matchup signals do not justify a public value side here.
FAQ
Modestas Bukauskas vs Rodolfo Bellato prediction FAQ
Quick answers before using any matchup read responsibly.
Who is FightAlpha picking for Modestas Bukauskas vs Rodolfo Bellato?
FightAlpha's public value read is PASS at the tested odds snapshot. This is not a guarantee or betting instruction.
What odds were used for Modestas Bukauskas vs Rodolfo Bellato?
The tested odds snapshot is Modestas Bukauskas 1.76 / -132 and Rodolfo Bellato 2.10 / +110. Lines move, so always compare with your own available price.
Why are FightAlpha matchup explanations data-first?
The model reads are built from data inputs, so the explanations stay grounded in measurable fight signals too. FightAlpha does not base picks on rumors, hype, sentiment, or personal feelings.
Are FightAlpha UFC predictions guaranteed?
No. MMA outcomes are uncertain and betting carries risk. Value reads can lose, and FightAlpha does not guarantee profit.