UFC matchup prediction
Mantas Kondratavicius vs Antonio Trocoli prediction, odds and fight preview
FightAlpha's value read is Mantas Kondratavicius at the tested odds snapshot. The read is about price versus matchup profile, not certainty.
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Quick summary
Mantas Kondratavicius vs Antonio Trocoli pick, odds and event context
UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs Murphy • The O2, London, United Kingdom
Value at the tested price; not a guaranteed winner.
Market snapshot used for this page.
Compare against your available line.
Fighter comparison
Mantas Kondratavicius vs Antonio Trocoli: key matchup signals
Green cells mark the stronger side for each measurable stat. Lower is better for strikes absorbed and age; higher is better for output, wrestling volume, defense, and reach.
| Signal | Mantas Kondratavicius | Antonio Trocoli |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 9-1 | 12-7 |
| Recent form | W | L-L-L-L |
| Style | Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu | Muay Thai / Muay Thai |
| Strikes landed/min | 4.97 | 1.27 |
| Strikes absorbed/min | 1.3 | 5.3 |
| Takedown avg | 2.8 | 0.88 |
| Takedown defense | 91% | 42% |
| Age | N/A | N/A |
| Height | 6'2" / 188 cm | 6'5" / 195.6 cm |
| Reach | 75" / 190.5 cm | 80" / 203.2 cm |
| Weight | 185 lb / 83.9 kg | 185 lb / 83.9 kg |
Deeper matchup context
Recent form, damage, activity and schedule notes
A few extra signals to help you read the matchup beyond the headline stats: who has been active, who has been taking damage, and whether recent results came against a tougher or softer slate.
Recent results: Mantas Kondratavicius is 1-0 over the recent sample; Antonio Trocoli is 0-4 over the recent sample. Mantas Kondratavicius comes in on a 1-fight winning streak. Antonio Trocoli comes in on a 4-fight losing streak.
Time since last fight: Mantas Kondratavicius 37 days; Antonio Trocoli 37 days. A quick turnaround can mean sharpness or accumulated wear, while a longer break can mean rest or rust.
Mantas Kondratavicius has the cleaner recent significant strikes absorbed profile (0 vs 87 for Antonio Trocoli). Mantas Kondratavicius has the cleaner head strikes absorbed profile (0 vs 10 for Antonio Trocoli).
Antonio Trocoli projects as the fighter more likely to push grappling pressure, which can change how much of the fight plays out at range.
Antonio Trocoli appears to have faced the tougher recent schedule, while Mantas Kondratavicius's results may need a little more context. A tougher schedule can make recent losses look less alarming; a softer one can make streaks look cleaner than they really are.
Value read
Why FightAlpha leans Mantas Kondratavicius
FightAlpha looks for prices that appear better than the matchup profile suggests. Value read does not mean most likely winner. It means the tested price looks better than the matchup profile suggests.
The lean toward Mantas Kondratavicius is built from a cluster of small edges: a clearer takedown-volume edge (2.8 per fight versus 0.88), the better takedown-defense number (91% versus 42%), the higher listed striking output (4.97 significant strikes per minute versus 1.27), and a cleaner listed significant-strike absorption profile. None of those signals settles the fight by itself, but together they make the tested price playable.
The market is close to a coin flip, so small line movement matters. Antonio Trocoli is live enough that the read should be treated as a narrow pricing edge.
FAQ
Mantas Kondratavicius vs Antonio Trocoli prediction FAQ
Quick answers before using any matchup read responsibly.
Who is FightAlpha picking for Mantas Kondratavicius vs Antonio Trocoli?
FightAlpha's public value read is Mantas Kondratavicius at the tested odds snapshot. This is not a guarantee or betting instruction.
What odds were used for Mantas Kondratavicius vs Antonio Trocoli?
The tested odds snapshot is Mantas Kondratavicius N/A / N/A and Antonio Trocoli N/A / N/A. Lines move, so always compare with your own available price.
Why are FightAlpha matchup explanations data-first?
The model reads are built from data inputs, so the explanations stay grounded in measurable fight signals too. FightAlpha does not base picks on rumors, hype, sentiment, or personal feelings.
Are FightAlpha UFC predictions guaranteed?
No. MMA outcomes are uncertain and betting carries risk. Public reads can lose, and FightAlpha does not guarantee profit.