UFC matchup prediction
Jack Della Maddalena vs Carlos Prates prediction, odds and fight preview
FightAlpha's value read is Jack Della Maddalena at the tested odds snapshot. The read is about price versus matchup profile, not certainty.
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Quick summary
Jack Della Maddalena vs Carlos Prates pick, odds and event context
UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs Prates • RAC Arena, Perth, Australia
Value at the tested price; not a guaranteed winner.
Market snapshot used for this page.
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Fighter comparison
Jack Della Maddalena vs Carlos Prates: key matchup signals
Green cells mark the stronger side for each measurable stat. Lower is better for strikes absorbed and age; higher is better for output, wrestling volume, defense, and reach.
| Signal | Jack Della Maddalena | Carlos Prates |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 18-3 | 23-7 |
| Recent form | L-W-W-W-W | W-W-L-W-W |
| Style | Mixed Martial Arts / MMA | Kickboxing / Striker |
| Strikes landed/min | 5.57 | 3.77 |
| Strikes absorbed/min | 3.84 | 4.53 |
| Takedown avg | 0.13 | 0.21 |
| Takedown defense | 64% | 80% |
| Age | 29 | 32 |
| Height | 5'11" / 180.3 cm | 6'1" / 185.4 cm |
| Reach | 73" / 185.4 cm | 78" / 198.1 cm |
| Weight | 170 lb / 77.1 kg | 170 lb / 77.1 kg |
Deeper matchup context
Recent form, damage, activity and schedule notes
A few extra signals to help you read the matchup beyond the headline stats: who has been active, who has been taking damage, and whether recent results came against a tougher or softer slate.
Recent results: Jack Della Maddalena is 4-1 over the recent sample; Carlos Prates is 4-1 over the recent sample. Jack Della Maddalena comes in on a 1-fight losing streak. Carlos Prates comes in on a 2-fight winning streak.
Time since last fight: Jack Della Maddalena 163 days; Carlos Prates 163 days. A quick turnaround can mean sharpness or accumulated wear, while a longer break can mean rest or rust.
Carlos Prates has the cleaner recent significant strikes absorbed profile (163 vs 189 for Jack Della Maddalena). Carlos Prates has the cleaner head strikes absorbed profile (22.43 vs 29.22 for Jack Della Maddalena).
Neither fighter has a clear pressure-profile edge, so the fight may come down more to execution than one obvious style lever.
Jack Della Maddalena appears to have faced the tougher recent schedule, while Carlos Prates's results may need a little more context. A tougher schedule can make recent losses look less alarming; a softer one can make streaks look cleaner than they really are.
Value read
Why FightAlpha leans Jack Della Maddalena
FightAlpha looks for prices that appear better than the matchup profile suggests. Value read does not mean most likely winner. It means the tested price looks better than the matchup profile suggests.
FightAlpha leans Jack Della Maddalena because the matchup shows the higher listed striking output (5.57 significant strikes per minute versus 3.77), and a cleaner listed significant-strike absorption profile. It is a practical pricing read, not a claim that every major matchup signal points one way.
This is still thin enough to respect the other side. Carlos Prates's higher takedown volume and Carlos Prates's better takedown defense keep Carlos Prates live, which is why this stays a value read rather than a comfort pick.
FAQ
Jack Della Maddalena vs Carlos Prates prediction FAQ
Quick answers before using any matchup read responsibly.
Who is FightAlpha picking for Jack Della Maddalena vs Carlos Prates?
FightAlpha's public value read is Jack Della Maddalena at the tested odds snapshot. This is not a guarantee or betting instruction.
What odds were used for Jack Della Maddalena vs Carlos Prates?
The tested odds snapshot is Jack Della Maddalena N/A / N/A and Carlos Prates N/A / N/A. Lines move, so always compare with your own available price.
Why are FightAlpha matchup explanations data-first?
The model reads are built from data inputs, so the explanations stay grounded in measurable fight signals too. FightAlpha does not base picks on rumors, hype, sentiment, or personal feelings.
Are FightAlpha UFC predictions guaranteed?
No. MMA outcomes are uncertain and betting carries risk. Public reads can lose, and FightAlpha does not guarantee profit.