UFC matchup prediction
Vinicius Oliveira vs Andre Fili prediction, odds and fight preview
FightAlpha's pass read is PASS · No edge at the tested odds snapshot. No edge means the tested price does not create enough value for a public bet.
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Quick summary
Vinicius Oliveira vs Andre Fili pick, odds and event context
UFC Fight Night: Kape vs Horiguchi • Meta APEX, Las Vegas, United States
No edge means the tested price does not create enough value for a public bet.
Market snapshot used for this page.
Compare against your available line.
Fighter comparison
Vinicius Oliveira vs Andre Fili: key matchup signals
Green cells mark the stronger side for each measurable stat. Lower is better for strikes absorbed and age; higher is better for output, wrestling volume, defense, and reach.
| Signal | Vinicius Oliveira | Andre Fili |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 23-4-0 | 25-13-0 |
| Recent form | L-W-W-W-W | L-W-L-W-L |
| Style | Mixed Martial Arts / Switch | Mixed Martial Arts / Orthodox |
| Strikes landed/min | 4.73 | 3.88 |
| Strikes absorbed/min | 2.7 | 4.34 |
| Takedown avg | 1.45 | 2.32 |
| Takedown defense | 70% | 71% |
| Age | 30 | 35 |
| Height | 5'9" / 175.3 cm | 5'11" / 180.3 cm |
| Reach | 70" / 177.8 cm | 74" / 188 cm |
| Weight | 145 lb / 65.8 kg | 145 lb / 65.8 kg |
Deeper matchup context
Recent form, damage, activity and schedule notes
A few extra signals to help you read the matchup beyond the headline stats: who has been active, who has been taking damage, and whether recent results came against a tougher or softer slate.
Recent results: Vinicius Oliveira is 4-1 over the recent sample; Andre Fili is 2-3 over the recent sample. Vinicius Oliveira comes in on a 1-fight losing streak. Andre Fili comes in on a 1-fight losing streak.
Time since last fight: Vinicius Oliveira 133 days; Andre Fili 98 days. A quick turnaround can mean sharpness or accumulated wear, while a longer break can mean rest or rust.
There is not enough reliable recent significant strikes absorbed data to lean on it heavily here. Andre Fili has the cleaner head strikes absorbed profile (25.23 vs 25.8 for Vinicius Oliveira).
Neither fighter has a clear pressure-profile edge, so the fight may come down more to execution than one obvious style lever.
Vinicius Oliveira appears to have faced the tougher recent schedule, while Andre Fili's results may need a little more context. A tougher schedule can make recent losses look less alarming; a softer one can make streaks look cleaner than they really are.
Pass read
Why FightAlpha passes
FightAlpha can still show useful context, but it will not force a pick when the available data is too thin or the price does not create a clear edge.
FightAlpha is passing because the tested price does not create a clean enough value edge from the available matchup profile.
That does not mean either fighter cannot win; it means the number and matchup signals do not justify a public value side here.
FAQ
Vinicius Oliveira vs Andre Fili prediction FAQ
Quick answers before using any matchup read responsibly.
Who is FightAlpha picking for Vinicius Oliveira vs Andre Fili?
No edge means the tested price does not create enough value for a public bet.
What odds were used for Vinicius Oliveira vs Andre Fili?
The tested odds snapshot is Vinicius Oliveira 1.43 / -230 and Andre Fili 2.95 / +195. Lines move, so always compare with your own available price.
Why are FightAlpha matchup explanations data-first?
The model reads are built from data inputs, so the explanations stay grounded in measurable fight signals too. FightAlpha does not base picks on rumors, hype, sentiment, or personal feelings.
Are FightAlpha UFC predictions guaranteed?
No. MMA outcomes are uncertain and betting carries risk. Public reads can lose, and FightAlpha does not guarantee profit.