UFC matchup prediction
Shara Magomedov vs Michel Pereira prediction, odds and fight preview
FightAlpha's pass read is PASS · No edge at the tested odds snapshot. No edge means the tested price does not create enough value for a public bet.
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Quick summary
Shara Magomedov vs Michel Pereira pick, odds and event context
UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs Torres • National Gymnastics Arena, Baku, Azerbaijan
No edge means the tested price does not create enough value for a public bet.
Market snapshot used for this page.
Compare against your available line.
Fighter comparison
Shara Magomedov vs Michel Pereira: key matchup signals
Green cells mark the stronger side for each measurable stat. Lower is better for strikes absorbed and age; higher is better for output, wrestling volume, defense, and reach.
| Signal | Shara Magomedov | Michel Pereira |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 16-1-0 | 32-14-0 |
| Recent form | W-L-W-W-W | W-L-L-L-W |
| Style | Kickboxing / Orthodox | Kickboxing / Orthodox |
| Strikes landed/min | 5.93 | 4.46 |
| Strikes absorbed/min | 3.85 | 4.4 |
| Takedown avg | 0 | 1.21 |
| Takedown defense | 71% | 75% |
| Age | 32 | 32 |
| Height | 6'2" / 188 cm | 6'1" / 185.4 cm |
| Reach | 73" / 185.4 cm | 73" / 185.4 cm |
| Weight | 185 lb / 83.9 kg | 185 lb / 83.9 kg |
Deeper matchup context
Recent form, damage, activity and schedule notes
A few extra signals to help you read the matchup beyond the headline stats: who has been active, who has been taking damage, and whether recent results came against a tougher or softer slate.
Recent results: Shara Magomedov is 4-1 over the recent sample; Michel Pereira is 2-3 over the recent sample. Shara Magomedov comes in on a 1-fight winning streak. Michel Pereira comes in on a 1-fight winning streak.
Time since last fight: Shara Magomedov 336 days; Michel Pereira 126 days. A quick turnaround can mean sharpness or accumulated wear, while a longer break can mean rest or rust.
Shara Magomedov has the cleaner recent significant strikes absorbed profile (197 vs 235 for Michel Pereira). Shara Magomedov has the cleaner head strikes absorbed profile (29.8 vs 30.79 for Michel Pereira).
Michel Pereira projects as the fighter more likely to push grappling pressure, which can change how much of the fight plays out at range.
Michel Pereira appears to have faced the tougher recent schedule, while Shara Magomedov's results may need a little more context. A tougher schedule can make recent losses look less alarming; a softer one can make streaks look cleaner than they really are.
Pass read
Why FightAlpha passes
FightAlpha can still show useful context, but it will not force a pick when the available data is too thin or the price does not create a clear edge.
FightAlpha is passing because the tested price does not create a clean enough value edge from the available matchup profile.
That does not mean either fighter cannot win; it means the number and matchup signals do not justify a public value side here.
FAQ
Shara Magomedov vs Michel Pereira prediction FAQ
Quick answers before using any matchup read responsibly.
Who is FightAlpha picking for Shara Magomedov vs Michel Pereira?
No edge means the tested price does not create enough value for a public bet.
What odds were used for Shara Magomedov vs Michel Pereira?
The tested odds snapshot is Shara Magomedov 1.31 / -323 and Michel Pereira 3.75 / +275. Lines move, so always compare with your own available price.
Why are FightAlpha matchup explanations data-first?
The model reads are built from data inputs, so the explanations stay grounded in measurable fight signals too. FightAlpha does not base picks on rumors, hype, sentiment, or personal feelings.
Are FightAlpha UFC predictions guaranteed?
No. MMA outcomes are uncertain and betting carries risk. Public reads can lose, and FightAlpha does not guarantee profit.