UFC matchup prediction
Cory Sandhagen vs Mario Bautista prediction, odds and fight preview
FightAlpha's pass read is PASS · No edge at the tested odds snapshot. No edge means the tested price does not create enough value for a public bet.
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Quick summary
Cory Sandhagen vs Mario Bautista pick, odds and event context
UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 • Location TBA
No edge means the tested price does not create enough value for a public bet.
Market snapshot used for this page.
Compare against your available line.
Fighter comparison
Cory Sandhagen vs Mario Bautista: key matchup signals
Green cells mark the stronger side for each measurable stat. Lower is better for strikes absorbed and age; higher is better for output, wrestling volume, defense, and reach.
| Signal | Cory Sandhagen | Mario Bautista |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 18-6-0 | 17-3-0 |
| Recent form | L-W-L-W-W | W-L-W-W-W |
| Style | Mixed Martial Arts / Switch | Mixed Martial Arts / Switch |
| Strikes landed/min | 4.86 | 5.3 |
| Strikes absorbed/min | 3.47 | 3.98 |
| Takedown avg | 1.15 | 1.91 |
| Takedown defense | 56% | 55% |
| Age | 34 | 33 |
| Height | 5'11" / 180.3 cm | 5'9" / 175.3 cm |
| Reach | 70" / 177.8 cm | 69" / 175.3 cm |
| Weight | 135 lb / 61.2 kg | 135 lb / 61.2 kg |
Deeper matchup context
Recent form, damage, activity and schedule notes
A few extra signals to help you read the matchup beyond the headline stats: who has been active, who has been taking damage, and whether recent results came against a tougher or softer slate.
Recent results: Cory Sandhagen is 3-2 over the recent sample; Mario Bautista is 4-1 over the recent sample. Cory Sandhagen comes in on a 1-fight losing streak. Mario Bautista comes in on a 1-fight winning streak.
Time since last fight: Cory Sandhagen 280 days; Mario Bautista 154 days. A quick turnaround can mean sharpness or accumulated wear, while a longer break can mean rest or rust.
Cory Sandhagen has the cleaner recent significant strikes absorbed profile (113 vs 205 for Mario Bautista). Cory Sandhagen has the cleaner head strikes absorbed profile (27 vs 28.15 for Mario Bautista).
Neither fighter has a clear pressure-profile edge, so the fight may come down more to execution than one obvious style lever.
Cory Sandhagen appears to have faced the tougher recent schedule, while Mario Bautista's results may need a little more context. A tougher schedule can make recent losses look less alarming; a softer one can make streaks look cleaner than they really are.
Pass read
Why FightAlpha passes
FightAlpha can still show useful context, but it will not force a pick when the available data is too thin or the price does not create a clear edge.
FightAlpha is passing because the tested price does not create a clean enough value edge from the available matchup profile.
That does not mean either fighter cannot win; it means the number and matchup signals do not justify a public value side here.
FAQ
Cory Sandhagen vs Mario Bautista prediction FAQ
Quick answers before using any matchup read responsibly.
Who is FightAlpha picking for Cory Sandhagen vs Mario Bautista?
No edge means the tested price does not create enough value for a public bet.
What odds were used for Cory Sandhagen vs Mario Bautista?
The tested odds snapshot is Cory Sandhagen 1.67 / -149 and Mario Bautista 2.30 / +130. Lines move, so always compare with your own available price.
Why are FightAlpha matchup explanations data-first?
The model reads are built from data inputs, so the explanations stay grounded in measurable fight signals too. FightAlpha does not base picks on rumors, hype, sentiment, or personal feelings.
Are FightAlpha UFC predictions guaranteed?
No. MMA outcomes are uncertain and betting carries risk. Public reads can lose, and FightAlpha does not guarantee profit.