UFC matchup prediction
Alessandro Costa vs Cody Durden prediction, odds and fight preview
FightAlpha's pass read is PASS · No edge at the tested odds snapshot. No edge means the tested price does not create enough value for a public bet.
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Quick summary
Alessandro Costa vs Cody Durden pick, odds and event context
UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 • Location TBA
No edge means the tested price does not create enough value for a public bet.
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Fighter comparison
Alessandro Costa vs Cody Durden: key matchup signals
Green cells mark the stronger side for each measurable stat. Lower is better for strikes absorbed and age; higher is better for output, wrestling volume, defense, and reach.
| Signal | Alessandro Costa | Cody Durden |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 16-5-0 | 18-10-1 |
| Recent form | W-W-L-W-L | W-L-L-L-L |
| Style | Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu / Orthodox | Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu / Southpaw |
| Strikes landed/min | 3.86 | 3.24 |
| Strikes absorbed/min | 3.7 | 3.94 |
| Takedown avg | 0.77 | 3.99 |
| Takedown defense | 86% | 56% |
| Age | 30 | 35 |
| Height | 5'4" / 162.6 cm | 5'7" / 170.2 cm |
| Reach | 67" / 170.2 cm | 67" / 170.2 cm |
| Weight | 125 lb / 56.7 kg | 125 lb / 56.7 kg |
Deeper matchup context
Recent form, damage, activity and schedule notes
A few extra signals to help you read the matchup beyond the headline stats: who has been active, who has been taking damage, and whether recent results came against a tougher or softer slate.
Recent results: Alessandro Costa is 3-2 over the recent sample; Cody Durden is 1-4 over the recent sample. Alessandro Costa comes in on a 2-fight winning streak. Cody Durden comes in on a 1-fight winning streak.
Time since last fight: Alessandro Costa 35 days; Cody Durden 77 days. A quick turnaround can mean sharpness or accumulated wear, while a longer break can mean rest or rust.
The recent significant strikes absorbed picture is basically level between both fighters. Alessandro Costa has the cleaner head strikes absorbed profile (23.67 vs 26.6 for Cody Durden).
Cody Durden projects as the fighter more likely to push grappling pressure, which can change how much of the fight plays out at range.
Cody Durden appears to have faced the tougher recent schedule, while Alessandro Costa's results may need a little more context. A tougher schedule can make recent losses look less alarming; a softer one can make streaks look cleaner than they really are.
Pass read
Why FightAlpha passes
FightAlpha can still show useful context, but it will not force a pick when the available data is too thin or the price does not create a clear edge.
FightAlpha is passing because the tested price does not create a clean enough value edge from the available matchup profile.
That does not mean either fighter cannot win; it means the number and matchup signals do not justify a public value side here.
FAQ
Alessandro Costa vs Cody Durden prediction FAQ
Quick answers before using any matchup read responsibly.
Who is FightAlpha picking for Alessandro Costa vs Cody Durden?
No edge means the tested price does not create enough value for a public bet.
What odds were used for Alessandro Costa vs Cody Durden?
The tested odds snapshot is Alessandro Costa 1.41 / -244 and Cody Durden 3.15 / +215. Lines move, so always compare with your own available price.
Why are FightAlpha matchup explanations data-first?
The model reads are built from data inputs, so the explanations stay grounded in measurable fight signals too. FightAlpha does not base picks on rumors, hype, sentiment, or personal feelings.
Are FightAlpha UFC predictions guaranteed?
No. MMA outcomes are uncertain and betting carries risk. Public reads can lose, and FightAlpha does not guarantee profit.