UFC predictions, odds and model picks
Main event
Settled Fight Alpha bets outcome: 4-3 on 7 bets, +$46.99 profit, 47.0% ROI on a $100 card.
Follow local laws and never bet where gambling is restricted or illegal.
FightAlpha reads and unit suggestions are informational only. Profit is never guaranteed.
A PASS or no-edge label is part of the system when the odds or data do not justify a bet.
Event hub
This event hub tracks FightAlpha model picks, tested odds, pass/no-edge calls, and full-card betting notes for every published matchup.
UFC odds and model picks
This event hub summarizes the full fight card with tested odds context, FightAlpha value/pass signals, and matchup links before the detailed breakdowns.
| # | Matchup | Odds context | FightAlpha read | Preview |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Khamzat Chimaev vs Sean Strickland | Khamzat Chimaev 1.12 / Sean Strickland 7 | PASS / no edge | |
| 2 | Joshua Van vs Tatsuro Taira | Joshua Van 2.4 / Tatsuro Taira 1.57 | Joshua Van | |
| 3 | Alexander Volkov vs Waldo Cortes Acosta | Alexander Volkov 1.55 / Waldo Cortes Acosta 2.45 | Waldo Cortes Acosta | |
| 4 | Sean Brady vs Joaquin Buckley | Sean Brady 1.6 / Joaquin Buckley 2.35 | PASS / no edge | |
| 5 | King Green vs Jeremy Stephens | King Green 1.29 / Jeremy Stephens 3.6 | PASS / no edge | |
| 6 | Ateba Gautier vs Ozzy Diaz | Ateba Gautier 1.09 / Ozzy Diaz 7.6 | PASS / no edge | |
| 7 | Joel Alvarez vs Yaroslav Amosov | Joel Alvarez 2.55 / Yaroslav Amosov 1.52 | Joel Alvarez | |
| 8 | Grant Dawson vs Mateusz Rebecki | Grant Dawson 1.56 / Mateusz Rebecki 2.45 | Grant Dawson | |
| 9 | Jim Miller vs Jared Gordon | Jim Miller 3.45 / Jared Gordon 1.32 | Jim Miller | |
| 10 | Roman Kopylov vs Marco Tulio | Roman Kopylov 2.7 / Marco Tulio 1.48 | Roman Kopylov | |
| 11 | Pat Sabatini vs William Gomis | Pat Sabatini 1.45 / William Gomis 2.75 | PASS / no edge | |
| 12 | Baisangur Susurkaev vs Djorden Santos | Baisangur Susurkaev 1.18 / Djorden Santos 5 | PASS / no edge | |
| 13 | Clayton Carpenter vs Jose Ochoa | Clayton Carpenter 2.45 / Jose Ochoa 1.55 | Clayton Carpenter |
Model picks methodology
The goal is not to predict every winner. The goal is to separate playable prices from passes before the card starts.
Each fight is reviewed through fighter history, style signals, recent performance, and red/blue corner context.
A fighter can be likely to win and still be a bad bet if the available price is too short.
Insufficient data, new fighters, cancelled bouts, or prices without enough edge are labelled as PASS/no edge instead of forced action.
FightAlpha is meant to be judged across cards through wins, losses, passes, odds, and staking discipline.
Full card picks
Review every matchup with fighter context, tested odds, public value/pass signals, model-pick discipline, and key stats in one place.
Khamzat Chimaev
15-0
Wrestling · Orthodox vs Kickboxing · Orthodox
Sean Strickland
30-7
Joshua Van
16-2
Kickboxing · Orthodox vs Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu · Orthodox
Tatsuro Taira
18-1
Alexander Volkov
39-11
Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu · Orthodox vs Kickboxing · Orthodox
Waldo Cortes Acosta
17-2
Sean Brady
18-2
Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu · Orthodox vs Boxing · Southpaw
Joaquin Buckley
21-7
King Green
34-17-1
Kickboxing · Orthodox vs Wrestling · Orthodox
Jeremy Stephens
28-20
Ateba Gautier
10-1
Boxing · Switch vs Kickboxing · Orthodox
Ozzy Diaz
10-3
Joel Alvarez
23-3
Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu · Orthodox vs Sambo · Orthodox
Yaroslav Amosov
29-1
Grant Dawson
23-3-1
Wrestling · Switch vs Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu · Southpaw
Mateusz Rebecki
20-4
Jim Miller
38-19
Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu · Southpaw vs Mixed Martial Arts · Orthodox
Jared Gordon
21-8
Roman Kopylov
14-5
Boxing · Southpaw vs Boxing · Orthodox
Marco Tulio
14-2
Pat Sabatini
21-5
Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu · Orthodox vs Wrestling · Southpaw
William Gomis
15-3
Baisangur Susurkaev
11-0
Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu · Orthodox vs Kickboxing · Orthodox
Djorden Santos
11-2
Clayton Carpenter
8-2
Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu · Orthodox vs Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu · Southpaw
Jose Ochoa
8-2
More UFC pages
Compare upcoming previews and historical ledgers across tracked UFC cards.
Allen vs Costa • 2026-05-16
Open event pageDella Maddalena vs Prates • 2026-05-02
Open event pageSterling vs Zalal
Open event pageProchazka vs Ulberg
Open event pageEvent FAQ
Use this page as a structured preview, not a guarantee. MMA betting is risky and passes are expected.
FightAlpha publishes a full-card event hub with model picks, pass/no-edge calls, tested odds context, and fight-by-fight betting notes for the tracked matchups.
The odds table summarizes the tested odds context used for each matchup where available, followed by deeper fight-card sections.
Yes. Each event page covers the tracked card, including public picks or passes and registered allocation context where available.
FightAlpha uses model-driven probability, odds, matchup context, and pass/no-edge discipline. The page is informational and not a guarantee.
A pass means the tested odds, matchup uncertainty, or available data do not justify a published bet.
Only use FightAlpha if you are an adult in a legal betting jurisdiction. Never chase losses, never risk money you cannot afford to lose, and treat every pick as uncertain.